Wednesday 19 September 2018

British Pound Stays Strong Whilst The Dollar Remains Weak

The British pound remained strong in early trading this week, especially so versus the US Dollar which remains weak and is consolidating around its recent lows.

GBPUSD has managed to trend higher this last month and is now back at the levels seen in early July. There could be some resistance around the 1.31 to 1.32 level above the price. This range was roughly the lows and consolidation areas during the early summer months.

However with Brexit still at the forefront of all news the British Pound could still gain some further ground yet. We are entering a crucial time for the Brexit negotiations with the Ireland border being one of the hot topics over the coming weeks, and that’s before the negotiations on trade come into play.

Weakness in other major currencies has also aided GBP’s strength. As we said earlier, the US Dollar is languishing at lows for the year, the Japanese Yen has been in constant freefall too, along with the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. If some of these currency trends change it could put some pressure on the British Pound and curb any further gains in the short term.

Today in the UK we have CPI data released at 9:30 AM and on Thursday morning we have retail sales data. Both sets of data have the potential to move the British Pound rate so we would expect some volatile trading as we move into the end of this week.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2018/09/british-pound-stays-strong-whilst-the-dollar-remains-weak/

Thursday 6 September 2018

British Pound Makes Gains on Brexit News Ahead of US Non Farm Payrolls

Yesterday the British Pound made gains across the board as word surfaced that progress towards an agreement on Brexit is being made. Instantly the Pound surged against all other currencies. The main gains were made against the US Dollar with weaker than forecast trade balance data arriving on US markets opening.

While a final deal with the EU for Brexit terms has yet to be reached, the news yesterday said that Germany had agreed to settle for a less detailed plan for the UK’s trade with the EU.

Worries over whether the UK will leave the EU with a deal, or no deal, have been hampering any gains that GBP can make. As always, uncertainty makes traders worry and money is scared to be put into the UK’s currency without a clearer long term picture on where the economy might be in a few years’ time.

Whilst GBP has faltered versus the Euro and Swiss Franc in recent times, it still holds relatively high versus Oceania currencies, mainly the Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar. Both of these currencies remain weak and are stumbling around their 5 year lows.

This week is Non Farm Payroll data week in the USA. Traders are expecting a forecast rise in Non Farm employment, but the forecast for the actual Unemployment rate is forecast to fall by a small 0.1%.

The US Dollar has remained relatively static this week, which is often the case before Non Farm Payroll data, with traders unwilling to commit funds ahead of what is a volatile trading session on Friday.

Gains for the Dollar were held back in part by a stronger British Pound, but as is normal we expect that to change on Friday when money pours into (or out of) the Dollar after the much anticipated data on Friday.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2018/09/british-pound-makes-gains-on-brexit-news-ahead-of-us-non-farm-payrolls/