Gold Prices and Where Next At This Resistance?

Gold gained good ground over the last week, after an early October fall through support. However, the fall stalled and found a base around the mid-point of the February to May range. Gold mining stocks had seen a phenomenal run, with some of the big players up over 200% and more from early 2016 lows, most pulled back strongly in-line with Gold prices.

So what is next for the metal we all love?

The current up-trend was abruptly halted yesterday by the FOMC monetary policy. There was no rate shift, and added a little hint that the next hike could come next month, but for now Gold touched the underside of the support that broke in October and may consolidate below for a while.

To make a break through this level, which could end up being quite a strong resistance as proven before, it may take a data shock or an “election” shock. Surely a Trump victory would be the catalyst to propel the Gold price to new highs for 2016. There’s not too long to wait.

The chart above shows the line in the sand that needs taken out before Gold can make any decisive move higher. It was tested twice before it was smashed on the Brexit vote, and here we are again, after our first re-test.

Could the shock of Donald Trump winning the election be the next “Brexit” spike for Gold?

Quite possibly. Until this last week Trump had been lagging in all the polls. Most people were of the thought school that Clinton should walk this election “no problem”. But Brexit shows that this type of thinking can be wrong when the people really want change.

It would be a shock, and uncertainty will follow. No doubt Gold would rocket, back to the highs, and possibly beyond as time moves by.

The only piece of data before then which has the potential to shift the Gold price higher is the Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday.

On 3rd of June the NFP data came in below forecasts by a huge amount. It was forecast for 159k and actual landed at 38k.

This saw Gold rocket from the 3 month low to above $1300 during the next two weeks preceding the Brexit vote. If NFP is skewed again, maybe Gold will set off on a run before the election, although it could be somewhat subdued following through until next week is out of the way.

Either way there are some interesting days ahead for those who follow Gold.

from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2016/11/gold-prices-and-where-next-at-this-resistance/

Interest Rates Abound as Election Time Looms

As we move ever closer to the US election, what more could you ask for than a week packed with highly anticipated economic data? Expect Gold and stock indices to be volatile as we move into the second half of the week. Here’s a quick rundown of what’s about to land.

Already, as of Tuesday November 1st we’ve had BoJ and Australian interest rate announcements. The Bank of Japan held their already negative rate at -0.10%, and Australia remained unchanged at 1.5%.

The Australian Dollar headed straight up towards October highs against the US Dollar on the decision that matched forecasts, whilst USDJPY was static in comparison.

Tomorrow, Wednesday 2nd November, we’ve the big event. All eyes will be focused on the Federal Funds Rate in the USA. It’s been 11 months since they hiked the rate for the first time in years. Whilst it’s widely forecast to remain unchanged maybe there’s a surprise in store?

Gold has been creeping up slowly during the last few trading days, which seems to suggest traders are betting on the forecast of “no change” holding true.

Thursday 3rd of November is the United Kingdom’s turn. At midday UK time the Bank of England drops its monthly rate decision, again it’s expected to be unchanged at 0.25%. The rate was lowered in August as the uncertainty of Brexit hit hard on the Pound. Alongside the BoE rate, they also publish their inflation report. All in all it should be a volatile time for traders of GBP.

If all this is not enough for you, then make time for Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data in the USA. It’s always a big market mover, and probably even more so after the Fed reporting in the same week.

Forecasts are that the figure will increase by 20k on the month however it missed, and fell by near 20k last month, so another miss may be the trigger to cause some volatile swings on stock indices.

This sets us up nicely for the ride into election time, November 8th. By the back end of next week we should know who will be the leader for the next 4 years. This in itself will probably cause major volatility, as it’s been the most unusual election in most peoples living memory.

from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2016/11/interest-rates-abound-as-election-time-looms/