GBP Gets Ready for an Unpredictable Day with Meaningful Vote 2

All eyes are once again focused on the British Pound, with a crunch vote happening today on the deal which Theresa May has secured with the EU parliament.

As news broke on Monday evening that there was now an agreement on the Northern Ireland backstop (which has been the main point of controversy throughout the withdrawal process) the Pound reacted strongly upward.

Since that gain it has fallen back, as nerves kicked in from traders on the direction of GBP should the Prime Minister not get her deal voted through.

GBP has been rallying strong since late last week, and versus the US Dollar it’s sitting around 2019 highs as it awaits the reaction to Parliaments vote.

Other British Pound pairs are looking strong also. GBPJPY is back near highs for the 12 month period, and GBPCHF surpassed 2018 highs – although the visit to higher prices seems to have been a brief one so far.

So we await the outcome of the vote, which according to press will be around 7pm tonight (UK time).

Things are never straightforward in the UK, and the Pound never reacts in a totally predictable manor, so expect some real volatility later across the markets, because this vote could open the path to unexpected outcomes.

from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2019/03/gbp-gets-ready-for-an-unpredictable-day-with-meaningful-vote-2/

Share Prices Undecided on Direction as Brexit Uncertainty Continues

Major stocks around the globe have been rising since the turn of the year, and share prices in the UK are no different. The FTSE 100 index was roughly 450 points off the December lows at the tail end of last week, when the index price briefly hit 7000 in early trading and fell sharply for the rest of the day.

Investors had renewed appetite for buying stocks as 2019 rolled in, and share prices of most companies have responded. However, they now seem to have stalled as once again Brexit uncertainty looms.

Theresa May’s Government were soundly defeated by an overwhelming majority on the vote for her proposed Brexit deal with the EU. Once again this throws out uncertainty on UK businesses and economy. Uncertainty is a real drag on any market, and Brexit continues to be one of the most uncertain issues the UK has faced in modern times.

Whilst GBP responded to the result with a huge gain, FTSE 100 futures began to retrace. Surprisingly there has been no real crash in share prices, but they do look to be stalling as if they await further developments on how the Prime Minister will approach the defeat with an alternative idea.

European and US stock indexes seem to be holding firm also, which is probably helping the FTSE stay stable. The DAX30 index is currently around 600 points up from its December low.

Micro cap stocks on AIM have also been seeing some spectacular gains. Shares such as EQT, which is up over 100% since December, and INFA, which has also gained around 90% since December. Many other AIM stocks have made good ground, after what can only be described as an awful 2018 for micro caps.

from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2019/01/share-prices-undecided-on-direction-as-brexit-uncertainty-continues/

Gold Prices – Have We Hit The Resistance?

The strength of Gold prices has remained high over the last 10 days since reaching the resistance at just under $1300. If you look left on a daily chart, you can see this was the area that clearly broke down in June 2018. Gold is fighting against higher prices here, a true battle of bulls versus bears.

One thing of note which Gold traders should observe around this level, is that the US Dollar looks like it could be turning. The US Dollar index is still holding an upward trend, although it has consolidated slightly over the last 30 days. Crucially, it is still above the highs of early last summer, and looks like it could be stalling and looking for a short term change in direction around here.

What does this mean for Gold? In general, because the majority of traders follow Gold prices versus the US Dollar, then strength of the Dollar tends to push Gold down. We can observe the lows in Gold over summer, and into autumn last year as the Dollar index rallied higher.

This could suggest there may be a pull-back in Gold prices over the coming weeks if the Dollar gains more momentum towards the recent highs. It’s inevitable that a strong rally will retrace as traders unwind positions. The key things are; Is a pull-back just a dip, which will rally once again? Or will the next fall signal a short term top?

Many commentators are calling for much higher prices in Gold. Why? Mainly because we seem to be easing off the cycle of rate hikes by the Fed. Comments came in December of the plan for 2 increases during 2019, which may not even happen dependent on economic conditions as this year progresses. If the planned rate hikes are put on hold, Gold could well see much higher prices during 2019.

So all in all, there is probably a good case for any retrace in Gold to be merely a dip. Traders should be watching for where the possible support levels could be if Gold does decide to slide, and watch for the US Dollar to meet some strong resistance.

from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2019/01/gold-prices-have-we-hit-the-resistance/