Tuesday 31 October 2017

Ibex Rally Continues After Weekend News On Catalan Region

The Spanish Ibex index has made some incredibly strong moves since Monday. After the announcement by the Madrid government to remove the power of the Catalan leaders which held the “illegal” referendum on independence.

From a close down below 10,200 on Friday the Ibex index has moved steadily higher to near 10,600 in early trade on Tuesday.

The move by Madrid to remove the power of the Catalan government is seen as bullish for stocks which were being held back by uncertainties surrounding the issue.

Kathleen Brooks, from City Index said: “Spanish markets are in recovery mode at the start of this week. Although this is a fluid situation there are a few things that are keeping the markets calm, which is why EUR/USD is back above 1.16 and the Ibex is the best performer in European equity markets”.

With the DAX index heading towards new all-time highs and the FTSE 100 consolidating up near October highs, it would not be beyond the realms of possibilities at the IBEX index could continue up much higher over the coming months.

The Ibex made an all-time high up above 11,000 in early summer. If the pattern of other stock indexes is to be followed then the ibex could play catch up fast. Especially if the news continues that Madrid is to create stability in the region.

Here you can see on the daily chart the down trend line that has clearly broken, and the all-time high above. Whether it heads straight there remains to be seen.

ibex

One thing is for sure is that this volatility will continue for some time yet, and you could find some excellent trading opportunities along the way.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/10/ibex-rally-continues-after-weekend-news-on-catalan-region/

Thursday 21 September 2017

Dow Jones Stumbles and Reverses on Fed Unchanged Interest Rate

The US federal reserve released their quarterly interest rate decision in the United States. They left rates on hold for the next period but hinted at a rate hike maybe on the cards before the end of this year.

Once again the Federal Reserve suggested that interest rates are due to rise again. Even though inflation has been falling this year, which was an admitted surprise, reporters were told on Wednesday that the economy is strong enough to handle another hike. Janet Yellen suggested they expect that the strength of the economy will warrant further increases in rates.

The federal reserve also suggested that the economy is strong enough to begin reducing the balance sheet. The $4.5 trillion balance sheet which came about from the stimulus program when the economy and recession hit, will begin unwinding in October.

According to the Fed. Business is getting stronger, hiring is strong, people are spending once again and projected a healthy 2.4% growth this year.

While the signs for further interest rate increases are apparent the Fed did not change the base rate yesterday. We can probably expect another rate increase by the end of this year, and three more are expected as we move into 2018.

Even though the stock market took an initial small tumble on the news that rates were left on hold, they soon recovered and ended higher, with the Dow Jones making (yet) another all time high.

Gold prices reacted strongly to the downside on this news. It immediately fell and broke the magical $1300 barrier. Whilst $1300 is not a major support, it is a round number and a significant number to break.It remains to be seen whether Gold can recover and attack the August highs again.

US dollar was strong after their interest rate announcement. US dollar versus the Japanese yen rose 112.50, and seems like the trend is most certainly up for the foreseeable future.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/09/dow-jones-stumbles-and-reverses-on-fed-unchanged-interest-rate/

Thursday 7 September 2017

CAD: Canadian Dollar Strength and US Dollar Weakness

On the foreign exchange market Wednesday things began slowly. Mixed moves from the major currencies meant choppy trade until data from the West arrived.

Things became more volatile as the Bank of Canada (BoC) moved rates by 0.25 to 1%. This sparked some life into the Canadian Dollar, and in turn its US cousin. A swift move of over 250 pips ensued for the USDCAD pair, as it hit a low on the day of 1.2129.

Overnight weak trade balance data out in Australia couldn’t really dampen the spirit of the AUD. Which held in the high range, 0.8000, against the US Dollar. That could come in to scrutiny today as US unemployment data arrives, and could breathe some life into the current weak greenback.

But today is all about the Euro. After midday UK time today the ECB will announce the minimum bid rate, and will be followed by a meeting and press conference. Draghi is most likely going to shed some light on the ECB’s thoughts on the Euro, and a strong address could see some volatile moves as the US opens for trading.

The weakness in the US Dollar also helped Cryptocurrency Bitcoin gain some ground. After 4 down days, a little light relief came as the price of Bitcoin headed back towards the early month high.

From a technical perspective Bitcoin seems to have re-tested the previous high, possibly creating an area of support. If it can now go on to make a new high, then maybe just maybe this rally is not yet over. The chart below shows the level clearly.

bitcoin chart

Ethereum was making similar moves, mirroring the strength in Bitcoin and aided by a weaker US dollar. Again the last two days have seen it make a back test of the early August highs, and is now making a move up once again. Whether new highs will follow remains to be seen.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/09/cad-canadian-dollar-strength-and-us-dollar-weakness/

Tuesday 11 July 2017

Mining Sector Shares – Fresnillo, Kaz Minerals and AAL

After a torrid time during 2014 and 2015, stocks in the mining sector made some good recoveries during 2016 and early 2017. Some spectacular gains were made by the major players, even the juniors and small caps got in on the action.

Then came spring 2017, and those stars of 2016 began to fall once again, which was inevitable after such a strong and sustained rise. However, recently the mining sector index made a small double bottom pattern from a previous support level. See the chart below. Is this the beginning of another leg up in this recovery, or just a stall before falling further?

mining-sector-index-chart

A lot depends on precious and base metal prices. Gold and silver prices have been in steady decline over the last few months, which in turn reflects directly into values of those mining stocks who rely on higher prices. Conversely, Copper has been heading up and right now is sitting the mid-level of 2015 prices. Companies who mine copper have performed a lot better.

Charts and Comments on Companies

Fresnillo is one such company who needs Gold to be strong. If you see the chart below, we have compared FRES (Red) to Spot Gold (Blue). The peaks and troughs are simple to see. Higher Gold prices equates to more profit for FRES.

fres-gold-chart

Kaz Minerals doesn’t seem to be suffering from the slow-down in the mining sector. KAZ is focused on Copper, and recently stated in a new release, “KAZ Minerals is delivering industry-leading production growth as promised to the market and was among the lowest cost copper producers globally in 2016.”

The chart shows that strength, not only with Copper prices on the rise but also the company doing great.

kaz-share-price-chart

Anglo American share price has mirrored the mining index very closely. We can only assume because it has such a diverse set of metals and minerals that it produces. It mines Platinum, Iron, Copper and Diamonds among others. AAL share price has been making gains over the last month, but would need to make progress above 1200 to get investors talking about the possibility of new highs in 2017.

aal-share-price



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/07/mining-sector-shares-fresnillo-kaz-minerals-and-aal/

Sunday 18 June 2017

Deutsche Bank lifts HSBC target price, retains 'hold'

Deutsche Bank bumped up its target price on shares of HSBC, hailing the restart of dividend payments in the US but cautioned that investors would need to be patient when it came to expectations for capital upstreaming from the States.

Analysts David Lock and Stephen Andrews welcomed the first dividends from HSBC's US unit in nearly 10 years.

While symbolic, they expected it would help fund future buybacks.

As well, they said the lender's first quarter results printed ahead of analysts' estimates, helped by a better performance from life insurance manufacturing and investment distribution.

However, commentary from management on the pace of capital upstreaming from the US was absent.

Lock and Andrews said it would still take more than three years for between seven to eight billion dollars of excess capital in the US to be returned to the holding company.

Full version:  http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/Deutsche-Bank-lifts-HSBC-target-price--retain-news25916964.html

Santander shares slip despite beating first quarter forecasts

Spain's largest lender posted better-than-expected quarterly profits thanks to a strong performance in almost all regions - especially in Brazil, UK and Spain - and a drop in its non-performing loan ratio.

Net profits at Santander jumped 14% during the first three months of the year to reach 1.87bn, edging past the consensus forecast from FACTSET for 1.847bn. Mexico was one weak spot, with results down 3% in comparison to the prior quarter. At 11.3bn top line growth was 5% ahead quarter-on-quarter, with costs just 1.6% higher versus the fourth quarter of 2016 and loan loss provisions stable.

Its net interert income improved 10.2% year-on-year to hit 8.402bn while its non-performing loan ratio dropped from 4.33% one year ago to 3.74%. Together, the above saw it return on tangible equity rise by 100 basis points to 12.1%. driving an 11 basis point improvement in its common equity Tier 1 ratio to 10.66%.

Santander reiterated its commitment to lift its CET1 ratio by roughly 10 basis points per quarter.

Full version: http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/Santander-shares-slip-despite-beating-first-q-news25853207.html

Tuesday 13 June 2017

Dow Jones Index Hits New All-Time High As Fed Prepares to Hike

Another day and another new all-time high for the Dow Jones industrial average index. It seems like groundhog day with this strap line, but here it goes again. The DJIA was buoyed by tech stocks rebounding in tremendous fashion, with the Nasdaq 100 also pushing higher after a few days of the wobbles.

Movers within the index were 3M and Goldman Sachs, posting the most gains. But technology stocks were back, and with a bang. As out-performers on the year so far, it was no surprise to see some relief as the S&P information technology sector has already gained 17.6 percent this year to date.

But tomorrow is the big day. The Federal Reserve will make their quarterly interest rate announcement tomorrow, with expectation that the central bank is going to raise interest rates by a quarter point.

How this will affect the Dow Jones index is hard to predict. Some commentators are saying the Dow Jones has already priced in a rate hike, some are saying brace for a sell on “event” type move. But all we can do is “wait and see”.

It would be foolish not to expect some sort of correction in value of the blue chip stocks in the Dow Jones index. If you look at the chart below, you would have to say it’s gone way (way) higher than anyone could have predicted before President Trump won the election. That doesn’t mean it can’t go higher, but how much?

dow-jones-chart

In the past, shocks from interest rate decisions have been one of the main catalysts for a surge in the opposite direction for stocks. When interest rates are hiked by a higher percentage than what was expected it can cause a sell off.

But right now the Federal Reserve are playing it cool and calm. No shocks, no large jumps. Just sneak those rates up as quarter points, in a gradual and timely fashion. Maybe this is allowing investors to digest the changes, and continue to hold a bullish stance? Well, no one else seems to have a firm answer as to why the markets are going so high. It is as good as any other explanation.

Until next time…



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/06/dow-jones-index-hits-new-all-time-high-as-fed-prepares-to-hike/

Friday 9 June 2017

FTSE 100 Holds Firm as Election Ends With Hung Parliament

A hung parliament was declared in the U.K. general election which resulted in some wild swings overnight for the FTSE 100.

After ending slightly down on Thursday, the main share index was priced by spread betting companies as down 100 points as the exit polls were announced.

During the early hours, one by one the results came in and the overnight price gradually began to recover. When it became apparent that the Conservative party would continue to hold the most seats and have the ability to form a coalition Government, the FTSE 100 price jumped when the market opened and headed toward the weeks highs.

And there it stayed, pretty much.

For the rest of the trading day the index held tight in a 50 point range from 7480 to 7530, give or take a few points.

Relief all round for investors who would have taken a Corbyn victory as a signal to sell, with extreme uncertainty in the city about how his Labour Government and their policies would affect business growth.

As for individual sectors, the majority were buoyed by the result and finished positive. The main laggards were general retailers and food producers, as the value of sterling declined – pointing to imports become more expensive.

The British Pound fell 300 pips overnight when exit polls were announced but managed to recover a small piece of ground during the morning session in Europe.

Further pressure is expected for sterling over the coming days. Once again uncertain times in the U.K. are on the horizon, with Brexit talks about to begin and no Government yet in place to move the process forward.

One thing is for sure- it’s never dull for long on the UK markets!



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/06/ftse-100-holds-firm-as-election-ends-with-hung-parliament/

Wednesday 31 May 2017

Dalradian Resources' shares rise after positive Curraghinalt update

Shares in Dalradian Resources rose more than 4% as it said drilling continued to reveal the high-grade nature of the Curraghinalt gold deposit in Northern Ireland.

from LiveCharts News - http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/news_article.php?id=26003503

Landore widens loss, eyes more equity raises to carry out development plans

Shares in Landore Resources Ltd are down almost 5% after its full-year pre-tax loss widened, and said it would continue to raise additional equity as need to carry out its development plans.

from LiveCharts News - http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/news_article.php?id=26002514

Lamprell surges on news of Saudi Aramco JV

Shares in Lamprell surged on Wednesday as the UAE-based oil rig maker said it will form part of a joint venture led by Saudi Aramco to establish, develop and operate a maritime yard for the construction of offshore drilling rigs and vessels on the East Coast of Saudi Arabia.

from LiveCharts News - http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/news_article.php?id=26002110

Tuesday 30 May 2017

Vast Resources' shares rise on approval for $4m disposal

Shares in Vast Resources improved almost 7% after the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe allowed the company to dispose of a non-controlling interest in its Pickstone-Peerless Gold Mine and Giant Gold Project in that country.

from LiveCharts News - http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/news_article.php?id=25998433

Science in Sport confirms patent for WHEY20

Shares in Science in Sport are up almost 3% after it confirmed being granted a patent for its protein gel WHEY20.

from LiveCharts News - http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/news_article.php?id=25998227

Kainos Group's shares slip after FY profit dips

Shares in information technology solutions company Kainos Group were down almost 5% after it produced a 7% fall in its full-year statutory pre-tax profit to £13.3m, from £14.1m.

from LiveCharts News - http://www.livecharts.co.uk/share_prices/news_article.php?id=25997775

Tuesday 23 May 2017

Opec Trying To Put Some Support Into Oil Prices

This week began in much the same fashion as they left last week with Oil prices rising. Expectation of a cut in output from OPEC, which could extend into 2018, pushed Crude Oil higher on the futures exchanges. In early trade UK on Tuesday, Brent Oil had fallen back from it’s high, but still remains over $5 higher than the early May low.

Oil prices have also been aided by a falling US Dollar, which has been on a steady downward trajectory for the last 10 days.

Market commentators are wary of the output cut talk, with many waiting to see the outcome of the Opec meeting on Thursday. Analysts state that they are not too sure how far OPEC can actually cut, whilst global demand is somewhat subdued, and US shale production on the rise. But we shouldn’t underestimate the need for OPEC, and particularly Saudi Arabia to keep Oil prices up and around the $50 per barrel mark.

In the short term there are now some clear points on the charts for some support and resistance. Below us, just above the $50 round number, and above us at the high of Monday.

brent-crude-june

It seems that each time Oil prices manage to gather some downward momentum, to under $50, that OPEC springs into action. This is set to continue (no doubt) into 2018, and many analysts comments are suggesting that prices are set to rise into 2020 and beyond as supply will not match the pace of demand, even in the face of greener energy sources.

There has been a lack of investment into Oil industries over the last two or three years. Obviously there will need to be a period of catching up. Demand will still be high, but supply may not reach the expected amounts for a while. This has fuelled comments from leading sources stating higher prices for Oil, and many other commodities into the early part of the next decade.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/05/opec-trying-to-put-some-support-into-oil-prices/

Monday 8 May 2017

Gold Prices and Why There’s Nobody Buying

At the back end of last week Gold prices slid to levels not seen since mid March, all-in-all it was Gold’s worst performing week of 2017 so far. The recent strength of the US Dollar put pressure on Gold as expectations of a rate rise grow.

The US Fed gave indication that planned rate rises this year were still on track, with many commentators looking to June as the likely month they will increase. The strong non-farm payroll data on Friday reinforced this thinking.

Gold can suffer while the Dollar strengthens because commodities priced in US Dollars become more expensive, and demand from those trading in other currencies often falls.

Goldman Sachs remain cautious on Gold prices in the near term, stating: “In the very near term we continue to expect that gold will trade moderately lower – our three-month target is $1,200/oz, as a number of bearish catalysts have yet to fully play out,”.

With stocks still rising and consolidating near all-time highs, there seems to be no rush to Gold either from worried investors. However, it would be worth keeping an eye on Gold, for any sudden movements from a support level, as stocks may pull back slightly as the summer months commence.

What is worth noting is that Gold currently trades above a reasonably strong level of support around $1200. On the chart below you can see the touches of lows and attraction to that price level.

gold-support

This really should be the line in the sand that investors will be watching. A hold above could see the next move in Gold head higher, consequently a clean break of this level (maybe on a rate rise) could signal further weakness and tests of levels from late 2016.

Either way there is something brewing. A critical time for Gold approaches.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/05/gold-prices-and-why-theres-nobody-buying/

Monday 20 February 2017

Life Insurance Sector Continues It’s Strong Start To 2017

Shares in the Life Insurance sector have been on a steady upward trajectory since the turn of the year, after a relatively static 2016 (apart from a Brexit blip). Leaders today were Standard Life, Prudential and Aviva as the pack went on rising.

Many analysts were of the opinion that Donald Trump’s policies were pointing to higher interest rates in the US, which would probably put a squeeze on insurance companies. But so far the opposite seems to be playing out.

A news piece on Sharecast just last week stated, “Traders cited comments from US president Trump during the afternoon saying he would have “something phenomenal” on taxes over the next two to three weeks as a reason for the uptick in ‘risk appetite’”. This lead to a bounce of Banking and Insurance stocks, and government bond yields, in the USA.

As for the UK Life Insurance sector , in the chart below you can see it is now trading above the 2016 highs and seems to have strength.

life-insurance

Aviva, one of the UK’s largest insurance companies is back on the rise. After correcting slightly in January, it’s now bouncing again and headed up above £5.00 per share.

aviva-share-price

Standard Life also seems to have its mojo back, with a sharp rise in February to a high of around £3.70 a share.

standard-life-share-price

Prudential is also following the sector trend, with a solid rise above 15.00 in December and holding that level ever since. Looking like it will break on, or at very least retest, the 2017 highs.

pru-share-price

As 2017 progresses and stance on interest rates becomes clearer, not just in the UK but also the USA, the sector may go through some bumpy patches. However, it could offer a nice dip to a support for any long term positions.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/02/life-insurance-sector-continue-its-strong-start-to-2017/

Friday 17 February 2017

Can The FTSE Head Higher? BP, Fresnillo, and Bank Index Could Help Decide

As we head towards the end of another financial year in the UK, it’s time to look back at how the FTSE 100 has fared since our last article back here in September. At that time the US election was yet to happen, and I hinted that the main index would only head higher if the banks joined in.

Well, the banks did join in. Since then Barclays has added 50p to its share price, and Lloyds has gained circa 20%. But in my opinion one of the main catalysts to push the FTSE 100 beyond the 7000 mark was the BP share price heading up from 4.30p ish to over 5.20p a share. BP has pulled back since the middle of January, but certainly Oil was a huge help to the FTSE gaining some much needed momentum.

Mining stocks have also been flying high. Copper prices have been booming, along with most base metals. Stocks such as Rio Tinto (RIO), Fresnillo (FRES) and Anglo American (AAL) have all been very strong since December helping add some strength to the main UK index.

As you can see on the chart below the mining index has been on a solid upward trend for a year now. After being hit hard by falling metal prices for a number of previous years, this is a welcome relief for many mining stocks and related industries. Those companies who streamlined their business during the tough times will now be reaping the rewards of higher values.

mining-index

The Bank index shows a similar upward trend, which kicked in right after the vote to leave the European Union. Whilst this trend may falter somewhat as trouble looms over triggering Article 50, there should still be plenty headroom for a move higher in late 2017.

banking-index

So here we are, with the FTSE 100 around all-time highs, the Dow Jones index halfway to 21000, and everything is rosy. Maybe that is the time to be wary? Good times seldom last forever, and while this may not be the “top”, I’d be very surprised if there wasn’t a correction of sorts to shake out some money. Be safe, and be ready.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/02/can-the-ftse-head-higher-bp-fresnillo-and-bank-index-could-help-decide/

Thursday 12 January 2017

Gold Price Shoots Higher As Trump Offers No Clarity

The US dollar fell hard whilst gold prices shot higher as Donald Trump began his pre-presidential speech, which provided little clarity on future financial policies. The price of gold began the US session to the downside, hitting a low of $1177 before reversing strongly heading towards $1200.

It seems the speech by the soon-to-be US president left questions to be answered on hot topics such as tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

Gold reacted strongly to this uncertainty and has now reached the underside of the support levels from early 2016. You can see clearly on the chart below where we are at the right now, this area could possibly hold a little bit resistance for the price of gold in the short term. However, further uncertainty that arises as the new US president enters the White House may see gold break past this level and settle in a range up towards $1300.

gold-resistance-level

Gold prices are sensitive to changes in US interest rates, so maybe the outlook on forthcoming changes could become clearer as Janet Yellen appears at a webcast town hall meeting today. Traders will be looking for clues as to whether the central banks projection of three rate cuts during 2017 will hold firm, with many commentators suggesting there could be less.

Whilst the US dollar has been on a strong rally since early November after the shock victory from Donald Trump, recent weeks have seen the currency consolidate against most other majors, even falling against the Japanese Yen. Continued weakness in the dollar coupled with uncertainties for the stock markets could propel gold back towards the 2016 highs.

It’s quite possible the markets are waiting for Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January. It will be interesting to see how all markets react once the new president takes his seat.



from http://www.livecharts.co.uk/livewire/2017/01/gold-price-shoots-higher-as-trump-offers-no-clarity/